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برنامه‌ریزی سناریو در سازمان: مرور حیطه‌ای مقالات متأخر | ||
| آینده پژوهی ایران | ||
| دوره 9، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 12، اسفند 1403، صفحه 242-264 اصل مقاله (919.55 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30479/jfs.2025.21398.1606 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی ذاکری* 1؛ غزاله حکمت پویا2 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی صنایع و آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران | ||
| 2کارشناسی ارشد آینده پژوهی دانشگاه اصفهان، گروه مهندسی صنایع و آینده‌پژوهی، اصفهان، ایران، | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 26 اسفند 1403، تاریخ بازنگری: 12 تیر 1404، تاریخ پذیرش: 30 تیر 1404 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف: برنامه‌ریزی سناریو، روشی سیستماتیک برای پیش‌بینی آینده‌های جایگزین و ابزاری مهم برای سازمان‌ها در مواجهه با عدم قطعیت و تصمیم‌گیری‌های استراتژیک است. این مرور حیطه‌ای، تصویری مقدماتی از چرایی استفاده از روش سناریو، تعریف سناریونویسی، کارکرد های و چالش های آن و انواع تکنیک های مورد استفاده ارایه می دهد. روش: این مرور، بر اساس تحلیل ۲۶ مقاله منتخب از پایگاه داده اسکوپوس (۱۹۹۰ تا ۲۰۲۳) انجام شد. اطلاعات کلیدی شامل تعاریف، روش‌ها، مزایا و معایب و انواع سناریوها از هر مقاله استخراج شد تا الگوها و روندهای غالب در این حوزه شناسایی گردند. یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد برنامه‌ریزی سناریو برای اهدافی چون تصمیم‌گیری استراتژیک، مدیریت ریسک و بررسی آینده سیستم‌های پیچیده به کار می‌رود. این رویکرد شامل طیف وسیعی از روش‌شناسی‌ها، از جمله رویکردهای کیفی (مانند کارگاه و نظر خبرگان) و کمی (مانند مدل‌سازی و شبیه‌سازی) است. کاربردهای آن نیز حوزه‌های متنوعی نظیر استراتژی کسب‌وکار، سیاست عمومی و پایداری را در بر می‌گیرد. نتایج: این مرور حیطه‌ای، تطبیق‌پذیری و اهمیت برنامه‌ریزی سناریو را به‌عنوان ابزاری ارزشمند برای سازمان‌ها و پژوهشگران در مواجهه با آینده‌ای نامطمئن تأیید می‌کند. این ابزار، توانایی آماده‌سازی و جهت‌دهی استراتژیک در شرایط پیچیده را فراهم می‌آورد | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Scenario Planning in Organization: Scoping Review of recent researches | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Zackery1؛ Ghazale Hekmat Pooya2 | ||
| 1Department of Industrial Engineering and Futures Studies, Faculty of Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran | ||
| 2Futures Studies Group, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, University of Isfahan, City Name Isfahan, Country Name Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Objective: Scenario planning is a systematic approach of anticipating alternative futures. In recent years, it has garnered increasing attention as a tool for organizations to navigate uncertainty and make strategic decisions. This scoping review examines the current state of knowledge on scenario planning by exploring its objectives, methodologies, and applications. Method: Twenty-six articles published between 1990 and 2023 were selected from a comprehensive search of the Scopus database . Through a meticulous review of each article, key information, including definitions, methods, advantages, disadvantages, and types of scenarios presented in the literature, was extracted to identify prevailing patterns and trends in this field. Results: The findings reveal that scenario planning is employed for diverse purposes, including strategic decision-making, risk management, and the exploration of future complex systems. This review also identifies a wide range of methodological approaches, encompassing qualitative methods (e.g., workshops, expert elicitation) and quantitative methods (e.g., modeling, simulation). The applications of scenario planning span various domains, such as business strategy, public policy, and sustainability. Conclusion: Overall, this scoping review highlights the versatility and value of scenario planning as a tool for organizations and researchers to prepare for an uncertain future. Therefore, this paper provides a concise and comprehensive overview of the current state of scenario planning using the scoping review method. | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 83 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 53 |
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