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تبیین علل ناکامی داعش در عراق بر مبنای نظریه فرصت سیاسی سیدنی تارو و مک آدام | ||
| مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام | ||
| دوره 10، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 38، شهریور 1400، صفحه 137-166 اصل مقاله (1.81 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30479/psiw.2021.14863.2940 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| محسن شفیعی سیف آبادی* 1؛ علی باقری دولت آبادی2 | ||
| 1استادیار و عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، یزد، ایران. | ||
| 2دانشیار و عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه یاسوج | ||
| تاریخ دریافت: 16 دی 1399، تاریخ بازنگری: 11 اسفند 1399، تاریخ پذیرش: 28 شهریور 1400 | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف: سال 1396، سال شکست پروژه «خلافت» داعش در جغرافیای سیاسی عراق بود. خلافتی که در سال 1393 با اشغال بخشهای غربی این کشور و استان‌های موصل، صلاحالدین، دیالی و الانبار آغاز گردید. این شکست در حالی رخ داد که هنوز این گروه تروریستی، بخشهایی از خاک سوریه را در اشغال خود داشت. هدف مقاله حاضر، تبیین علل ناکامی داعش در عراق است. سؤال اصلی این است که «عوامل ناکامی داعش در تشکیل خلافت در جغرافیای عراق چیست؟» روش: برای این منظور، از روشتوصیفی – تحلیلی و نظریه فرصت سیاسی سیدنی تارو و مکآدام استفاده شده است. یافتهها: یافتههای پژوهش نشان میدهد، اتحاد نخبگان حاکم در سرکوب داعش، بسته بودن فضایسیاسی برای ورود آنها به بدنه نظام سیاسی، ثبات و اتحاد درونی ارکان حکومت، هوشیاری سیاسی شهروندان نسبت به ماهیت داعش و عدم دسترسی به متحدین سیاسی نافذ، راه هرگونه دستیابی به فرصت سیاسی را برای داعش مسدود نمود و آنها را در حفظ خلافت و قلمرو تحت تصرف خود ناکام گذاشت. نتیجهگیری: نظریه فرصتهایسیاسی میتواند شکست اعتراضات سیاسی و حرکت نیروهای جهادی سلفی در جغرافیای سیاسی عراق را که منشأ بحرانهای امنیتی – اجتماعی بودند، با دقت بالایی توضیح دهد. در چارچوب این نظریه، موقعیت داعش متأثر از دو دسته عوامل داخلی و خارجی بود. در ارتباط با عوامل داخلی، نقش اختلافات بین مقامات سیاسی و گروههای مذهبی و قومی قابل تأمّل است. در مورد عوامل خارجی، قطع حمایتهای مالی، نظامی و سیاسی از داعش و تشکیل ائتلاف منطقهای و بینالمللی علیه داعش در پایان خلافت آن نقش مؤثری داشت. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| داعش؛ سیدنی تارو؛ مک آدام؛ فرصت سیاسی؛ عراق | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Explaining the Causes for the Failure of ISIS in Iraq Based on the Theory of Political Opportunity of Sydney Tarrow and Mcadam | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohsen Shafiee Seifabadi1؛ Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi2 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor of Political Sciences, Ardakan University, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor of Political Sciences, Yasouj University, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Objective: 2017 was the year of the failure of the ISIL »caliphate« project in the political geography of Iraq; The caliphate that began in 2014 with the occupation of the western parts of the country and the provinces of Mosul, Salah al-Din, Diyala and Anbar. The defeat came as the terrorist group still occupies parts of Syrian territory. The purpose of this article is to explain the reasons for the failure of ISIS in Iraq. The main question is, »What are the causes of ISIL's failure to form a caliphate in Iraq?« Method: For this purpose, descriptive-analytical method and political opportunity theory of Sydney Taro and McAdam have been used. Findings: The research findings show the unity of the ruling elites in suppressing ISIL, the closure of the political space for their entry into the political system, stability and internal unity of government elements, citizens' political awareness of the nature of ISIL and lack of access to influential political allies; It blocked any access to political opportunity for ISIL and failed to maintain its caliphate and territory. Conclusion: The theory of political opportunities can explain with great accuracy the defeat of political protests and the movement of Salafi jihadist forces in the political geography of Iraq, which were the source of socio-security crises. In the framework of this theory, the position of ISIL was affected by two categories of internal and external factors. In relation to internal factors, the role of differences between political officials and religious and ethnic groups is thought-provoking. Regarding external factors, the cessation of financial, military and political support for ISIL and the formation of a regional and international coalition against ISIL played an effective role at the end of its caliphate. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| ISIS, Sydney Taro, McAdam, Political Opportunity, Iraq | ||
| مراجع | ||
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