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مطالعهی پیشرانهای موثر بر پایداری مسکن شهر قزوین بر مبنای رویکرد آینده پژوهی | ||
آینده پژوهی ایران | ||
دوره 8، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 14، شهریور 1402، صفحه 197-220 اصل مقاله (1.07 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30479/jfs.2023.17968.1436 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
صابر محمدپور* 1؛ غزاله حیدری2؛ مهشاد شریفی راد3 | ||
1عضو هیات علمی و دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری دانشگاه گیلان ، گیلان ، ایران | ||
2دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد-برنامه ریزی شهری- دانشکده معماری و هنر دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران | ||
3مرتبه علمی: دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد-برنامه ریزی شهری- دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران | ||
تاریخ دریافت: 07 آبان 1401، تاریخ بازنگری: 06 خرداد 1402، تاریخ پذیرش: 22 شهریور 1402 | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف: امروزه رشد شتابان شهرها و افزایش جمعیت شهرنشین حکایت از به وجود آمدن ناپایداری در مناطق شهری دارد. در راستای کاهش ناپایداری در شهرها پارادایم پایداری و آینده نگاری بیش از گذشته مورد توجه قرار می گیرد. آینده نگاری مسکن در برنامه ریزی شهری و توسعه پایدار شهرها به عنوان یک زیرساخت اساسی نقش مهمی دارد. بنابراین بررسی آینده محتمل پایداری مسکن شهر قزوین در این پژوهش مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. روش: در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش دلفی و نرم افزار میک مک پیشران های موثر پایداری مسکن شهر قزوین براساس رویکرد آینده پژوهی در ابعاد چهارگانه جمع بندی و تحلیل شده و به صورت یک پژوهش جامع و کاربردی ارائه شده است. یافته: بر اساس بررسی های صورت، پیشران های «توسعه مختلط مسکونی»، «دسترسی واحد مسکونی به خدمات»، «انسجام و تعاملات اجتماعی» و «هویت و سرزندگی» بر پایداری مسکن بیشترین تاثیرگذاری و پیشران های «دسترسی واحد مسکونی به خدمات»، «انسجام و تعاملات اجتماعی» و «معماری پایدار هماهنگی با اقلیم و مصالح بومی» بیشترین تاثیر پذیری را نسبت به پایداری مسکن را دارا هستند. نتیجه گیری: پیشران های واقع در ناحیه یک گراف گراف تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری، پیشران های دو وجهی هستند و بر پایداری سیستم تاثیرگذاری بسیار بالایی دارند. به عبارتی پیشران های راهبردی سیستم هستند. همچنین پیشران های واقع در ناحیه دو گراف، کمترین نظارت و مدیریت بر آن وجود دارد، بنابراین محدوده ی بحرانی را تشکیل می دهند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آینده پژوهی؛ برنامه ریزی مسکن؛ توسعه پایدار؛ پایداری مسکن؛ آینده پژوهی مسکن | ||
عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
Study of Effective driving forces on housing sustainability in Qazvin based on Futuristic Approach (based on four dimensions) | ||
نویسندگان [English] | ||
Saber Mohammadpour1؛ Ghazale Heydari2؛ Mahshad Sharifirad3 | ||
1Associate Professor Dept. of Urban Planning & Design Faculty of Architecture & Art University of Guilan Rasht- Iran | ||
2Ghazaleh Heydari- Master student, Dpartment of urban planning, University of Guilan | ||
3Mahshad Sharifirad –Master student, Imam khomeini international university,Ghazvin,Iran | ||
چکیده [English] | ||
Today, rapid growth of cities and increase of urban population indicate that urban instability has occurred in urban areas. In order to reduce instability in the cities, the paradigm of sustainability and foresight is considered more than ever. Therefore, housing foresight plays a very important role in urban planning and sustainable urban development as a basic infrastructure. In this study, Delphi method and Mick Mac software have been used to collect and analyze effective sustainability of housing in Qazvin based on a four dimensional approach and developed a comprehensive and applied research. As a result, paying attention to futurism in housing studies in Qazvin is an important issue. Accordingly, studies show that the drivers of "mixed housing development", "housing unit access to services", "social cohesion and interaction" and "identity and vitality" have the greatest impact on housing sustainability, and the drivers of " "Housing unit access to services", "social cohesion and interaction" and "sustainable architecture in harmony with local climate and materials" have the greatest impact on housing sustainability. Finally, the drivers of "social cohesion and interaction" and "housing unit access to services" have a high impact and influence on the sustainability of housing in Qazvin. | ||
کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
Futurism, Housing Planning, Sustainable Development, Housing Sustainability, Housing Futurism | ||
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